hurricane season

Every year various hurricane experts and climatologists work with predictive models to forcast the upcoming hurricane season. Here is a recent report from the Colorado State University Tropical Meterology Project. It's interesting reading.

If you look at the 2005 forcasts from the same source, here's what you see

Dec 3rd May 31st Observed
Prediction Prediction
Named Storms 11 15 23
Hurricanes 6 8 13
Intense Hurricanes 3 4 7
(Category 3-5)

(The report comparing 2005 predictions to actual, can be found here.

As a note, this is a quote from that report, "Overall, we consider our seasonal and monthly forecasts for the 2005 hurricane season to be one of the most skillful that we have issued." If this is a good prediction...

A few thoughts on this.
1) They're predicting 2006 to be another busy year, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes. Should be interesting. I'm glad I don't live on the coast.

2) In their 2006 prediction report, they mention that until 1995, they used a model based in part on West African rainfall levels. This variable had been highly predictive of hurricane season for over 40 years. Then something changed, and West African rainfall was no longer a significant variable. And they have no idea why. They have since restructured their predictive model, but it's kind of troubling that a climatic variable that had always previously been associated with hurricanes, was no longer. Climate is changing and the climatologists don't always know why.

3) If climatologists are not very good even at predicting the hurricane season with only 6-11 months of lead time, then how accurate do you think the global climate forcasts are for the next 20-40 years? I think the data we do have clearly show that the earth is warming (and this conclusion is based on hard data, not on predictions). But, it's a tad scary to think, that we might know that the earth is warming, but really don't know what that's going to do to climate.

Some climatologists have predicted that global warming will lead to slowing of the North Atlantic current, causing cooling and possibly a "little ice age" (not nearly as severe or sensationalistic as The Day After Tomorrow, but still cold). See the Woods Hole website for some of the science behind this.

And here's a graphic representation of how the warming/cooling of ocean currents works:



However, other scientists think that any potential slowing of the ocean currents will be offset by the accumulation of greenhouse gases, and that we really are headed towards a much warmer climate.

But ultimately, here's the point. Climatologists really don't know what's going to happen, except that the near future probably holds alot of climate and weather disruption.

I think the next 50 years are going to be very interesting. D and I think about buying land in the desert of the Southwest, but I wonder, will it still be desert in 20 years? Or maybe it will become a such a severe desert that it won't be possible for anyone to live there.