Saturday, March 25, 2006

in response to the "nuke the chinese" comment

(as a way of decreasing greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.)

The US is the #1 producing of greenhouse gases (25% of the world's total).
China is #2 (15% of the world's total).

The US has less than a quarter of the population of China and we still produce more greenhouse gases.

And, if you take into account the fact that many of the goods consumed in the US are produced in China (so the emissions are counted as Chinese, when in fact they are US driven), the percentages are further apart (see this article).

If I actually believed in violence, nuking the Chinese would not be my first choice.

hurricane season

Every year various hurricane experts and climatologists work with predictive models to forcast the upcoming hurricane season. Here is a recent report from the Colorado State University Tropical Meterology Project. It's interesting reading.

If you look at the 2005 forcasts from the same source, here's what you see

Dec 3rd May 31st Observed
Prediction Prediction
Named Storms 11 15 23
Hurricanes 6 8 13
Intense Hurricanes 3 4 7
(Category 3-5)

(The report comparing 2005 predictions to actual, can be found here.

As a note, this is a quote from that report, "Overall, we consider our seasonal and monthly forecasts for the 2005 hurricane season to be one of the most skillful that we have issued." If this is a good prediction...

A few thoughts on this.
1) They're predicting 2006 to be another busy year, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes. Should be interesting. I'm glad I don't live on the coast.

2) In their 2006 prediction report, they mention that until 1995, they used a model based in part on West African rainfall levels. This variable had been highly predictive of hurricane season for over 40 years. Then something changed, and West African rainfall was no longer a significant variable. And they have no idea why. They have since restructured their predictive model, but it's kind of troubling that a climatic variable that had always previously been associated with hurricanes, was no longer. Climate is changing and the climatologists don't always know why.

3) If climatologists are not very good even at predicting the hurricane season with only 6-11 months of lead time, then how accurate do you think the global climate forcasts are for the next 20-40 years? I think the data we do have clearly show that the earth is warming (and this conclusion is based on hard data, not on predictions). But, it's a tad scary to think, that we might know that the earth is warming, but really don't know what that's going to do to climate.

Some climatologists have predicted that global warming will lead to slowing of the North Atlantic current, causing cooling and possibly a "little ice age" (not nearly as severe or sensationalistic as The Day After Tomorrow, but still cold). See the Woods Hole website for some of the science behind this.

And here's a graphic representation of how the warming/cooling of ocean currents works:



However, other scientists think that any potential slowing of the ocean currents will be offset by the accumulation of greenhouse gases, and that we really are headed towards a much warmer climate.

But ultimately, here's the point. Climatologists really don't know what's going to happen, except that the near future probably holds alot of climate and weather disruption.

I think the next 50 years are going to be very interesting. D and I think about buying land in the desert of the Southwest, but I wonder, will it still be desert in 20 years? Or maybe it will become a such a severe desert that it won't be possible for anyone to live there.

Friday, March 24, 2006

for those who were worried about Iraq

Check out the most recent news from The Onion. For those who aren't aware, The Onion is a satirical newspaper.

Of course, we can always go back to worrying about Afgahnistan too. For those who have not heard about the recent prosecution of a man who converted from Islam to Christianity, check out this Time article.

Sadly, I can't imagine a better example as to why imposing the US model of democracy on other countries doesn't work. True democracy, by its very definition, can not be created through force. As much as we might wish there were an easy way to make the entire world respect human and civil rights, using violence, and violating human and civil rights in the process, does not work. The ends can not justify the means.

Thursday, March 23, 2006

on global warming

A recent NY Times article on global warming talks about two new studies to come out pointing out the already dramatic effects of global warming.

Two other recent studies also point toward worsening global warming. One focuses on arctic sea ice and how it's melting faster than it is accumulating. It's effects are wide range, but a major one is the impact on polar bears. Another study, by NASA, looked at trends in world temperatures clearly demonstrating an increasing warming trend world-wide. (And if that report got through the censors of the Bush administration, imagine what didn't?)

Yes, I'm about to get on my environmental soap box...

I think most of us acknowledge that global warming is occurring (unless you work in the white house, in which case everything is just peachy). Ultimately, what are the causes and what can we do about it?

Here is a really cool EPA site that allows you to calculate your personal greenhouse gas emissions and gives tips on things you can change (usually very practical and reasonable tips).

Sources of greenhouse gases:

1) Cars: Transportation accounts for ~32% of greenhouse gas emissions in the US (in California, it accounts for 40%). I know most people are not going to sell their cars and start biking everywhere, but there are specific things you can do to decrease emissions. If you are planning on getting a new car, consider a hybrid or a small gas efficient car (the Toyota Echo gets 42 mpg on the highway). Consider biking or taking the bus to work once or twice a week when the weather is nice. (Personally, I find taking the bus relaxing since I always bring a book or get work done. And biking to work is a great way of getting exercise and decreasing emissions at the same time). Drive less: combine multiple errands into single trips, make lists so you don't forget things at the store and have to go back three times. Drive slower!!! This has a huge impact on your gas mileage and most people don't even realize it. This site gives some other good tips on gas mileage. Try them for a week, keep track of your gas mileage, then go back to your old way of driving for a week and compare the two weeks. You'll be surprised how different they are.

2) Electricity: Power plants contribute about 38% of greenhouse gad emissions in the US. Turn off the lights. Use compact fluorescent bulbs instead of regular incandescent bulbs (you can usually get packs of them at Costco). They last longer, and in the long run, are a lot cheaper.

3) Manufacturing: Much of the electricity generated in the US is not used by individuals, but for manufacturing goods. Reduce, Reuse, Recycle. It's fairly easy to remember, and it's the order you should use to prioritize how you're going to decrease what you use and the impact it has on the environment.

Reduce what you buy; most of us buy things that we don't need (or often even want). Consumerism is rampant in the US and advertising is effective. It's not easy to step back from something and think "do I really need this?" But if we don't, we end up owning a lot of things we don't need. And then they end up in landfills. A lot of manufacturing occurs in developing countries where the environmental regulations are not as strict as in the US. Try to buy things made in developed countries. (You're also less likely to be supporting sweat shops that way.) Do you really need to buy bottled water? How 'bout getting a water bottle and re-filling it instead? Or get a Brita or other water filter to use at home.

Reuse: We often throw things out when they're still in good shape. See if you can think of another use for something. (Instead of recycling our glass jars, we use them to organize the workbench. One size screws in one jar and so on. A five pound plastic bucket of joint compound is now our compost bucket.) A lot of clothing gets made abroad as well and it's often hard to find what you want if you limit yourself to US-made clothes. Shop at a thrift store instead. You'd be amazed at the quality of clothes that people donate (Most the stuff I buy from thrift stores is new, often with the tags still on it; someone bought it and never wore it.) In the kitchen, find someplace that sells bulk spices and refill your spice jars instead of buying spices in new jars. (It is tremendously cheaper too!) If you can't think of a use for something, or don't have the time to take it to a thrift store, post it on Freecycle, an email list that people use to get rid of stuff they don't want anymore, or find stuff they need. In Salt Lake, many of the people who are looking for things are low income and wouldn't be able to afford buying the stuff that's offered up on the list.

Recycle: Recycling is great on many levels. (From the EPA: By recycling all of its office paper waste for one year rather than putting it in the landfill, an office building of 7,000 workers could reduce greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to taking about 370 cars off the road that year.) But before you recycle something, carefully consider whether it can be reused, or whether there might be a way to either avoid buying it again in the future, or buying it in such a way that you won't end up with garbage of some kind. If you have the yard space, start a compost pile. They're not hard to manage and provide great fertilizer for your garden. If you don't want to deal with compost, see if a neighbor has a pile. They will be overjoyed to get your kitchen scraps.

Another idea:
AAA (American Automobile Association) is a huge pro-auto industry lobbying group. That is where most of your annual membership fee goes. Check out this article from the NRDC on AAA. Use Better World instead. It's a pro-environment auto club. They even do bike roadside assistance, and have a carbon-offset program where you can donate money to a project that reduces gas emissions by the same amount you produce when you fly.

And this post has gone on long enough. If you do other things that decrease greenhouse gas emissions, or improve your reducing/reusing/recycling, post them in the comments. I'm always looking for ideas!

Love,
J

Growing up to be conservative

I'm sure some of you have seen this article on childhood personality traits associated with growing up to be conservative. I haven't checked out the science behind it at all, but it's amusing and the implications are interesting.

Monday, March 20, 2006

Things that make me happy....

mint oreo cookies (I'm eating some right now)
sunshine
not having to set an alarm for the morning
central heat (those of you who have also lived without know what I mean)
really good goat cheese
my family and how amazingly crazy and wonderful they all are
the buffy "once more with feeling" soundtrack
pupusas (the national snack of el salvador)
acting childish
Tolkien
a hot shower
Hindi, an amazing indian restaurant in Nairobi (if it's still here)
my partner and everything about him
a bluetooth headset for my cell phone
Ursula LeGuin
knowning how to use SAS
Cumin
Lime
Black beans
Speaking passable spanish
Fantasizing about traveling
Planning trips (even better than taking them sometimes)
Really beautiful perfect powder snow (you won't believe Utah snow until you try it)
Lois McMaster Bujold
the sweater my step-mom made me (it's warm and cozy)
sesame oil
HOPS!!! (Double IPA anyone?)
(Pizza Port, Big Eye IPA, Rogue, Arrogant Bastard)
Belgian yeasts (do you see a theme here? :)
(Chimay, Unibroue)
Good pots for cooking
Pretty colors
the smell of spring
a well functioning compost pile
spending time with my nieces and nephews and little cousins (and being called auntie doctor)
Trader Joes
Utah Phillips
Pete Seeger
Being good at what I do
All my friends
an anti-war protest
rock climbing
almonds (raw, not salted)
finding distractions from doing work (hmm...can anyone guess what I should be doing being right now?)
being proud of my partner and what he does
unpacking a box (there are still many left to go)
my quote book
wine tasting
good chocolate (who's list wouldn't be complete without this one)
thai food, in thailand
Danskos
Scrubs (very comfortable pajamas. i doubt i'd like them that much if i actually still had to wear them in a hospital)
Tom Leher
Cowboy Junkies
Dar Williams
carabeeners
being on my bike
realizing how far i've come from high school
anti-bush jokes
Coffee (ideally fair trade, shade grown, organic. Zapatista coffee anyone?)
journaling
my wedding ring
dressing like a schlump
broccoli
tofu
running
David Rovics Download some of his songs for free. He has amazing activist lyrics
being a street medic and a legal observer (I'll let you search out these two yourself)

I think I could keep going for a long time, but it was a fun list to start. (I've added in some links related to these things for you to follow if you would like.)

sushi...

My friend T has been living in Japan for the last few years. She put this link up on her blog. It's hilarious (especially if you're a sushi lover).


fun sushi link